黄金系列专题

Will Rising Interest Rates Push Gold Higher?利率上升会推高黄金价格吗？

There has been an incredible amount of chatter as to how many times the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates in 2018, and the speed at which it will raise them by. For gold investors, the old question lingers, “What will rising interest rates mean for the price of gold?”

关于美联储在2018年加息的次数，以及它将提高它们的速度，已经出现了令人难以置信的喋喋不休。对于黄金投资者来说，旧问题依然存在，“利率上升对黄金价格意味着什么？”

The simple viewpoint has been that rising rates are bad for gold because gold is not an interest-bearing asset. Why would you own gold if interest rates are rising and gold doesn’t pay you anything? There are typically two sides to the debate on the impact of gold from the change in interest rates. There are those who see rising interest rates as good for gold, and there are those that see rising interest rates as harmful to the price of gold. But who is right? Which side is correct? Could they both be wrong? Or both be right?

一个简单的观点是，上涨利率对黄金不利，因为黄金不是有息资产。如果利率上升而黄金不支付任何费用，你为什么要拥有黄金？关于黄金对利率变化的影响的争论通常有两个方面。有些人认为利率上升对黄金有利，有些人认为利率上升对黄金价格有害。但谁是对的？哪一方是正确的？他们俩都错了吗？或者两者都对吗？

What Happened Before Gold Window Closed from the Nixon Shock?在Nixon Shock（尼克斯冲击）关闭黄金窗口之前发生了什么？

During the three-year period from 1968 to 1971, we witnessed the fed funds rate double from 4.6% to a high of 9.19% in 1969, before falling back down to 3.71% in March 1971. During this time, the gold price went from $35.20/oz. to a high of $43.60/oz. in 1969, three months before the fed funds rate peaked. Gold appreciated 23.2%, nothing spectacular, before falling back to $35.1/oz. in March 1970, a year before the fed funds rate bottomed. We can say that during this time period the trend for both gold and interest rates rose together. The trend was less consistent on the way down and with the recovery thereafter.

在1968年至1971年的三年期间，我们目睹了1969年联邦基金利率从4.6％翻了一番，达到9.19％的高位，然后在1971年3月回落至3.71％。在此期间，黄金价格从$35.20/盎司。至43.60美元/盎司的高点。1969年，联邦基金利率达到顶峰前三个月。黄金升值23.2％，没什么了不起的，之后回落至35.1美元/盎司。1970年3月，联邦基金利率触底前一年。我们可以说，在这段时间内，黄金和利率的趋势一起上升。这种趋势在下行和随后的复苏方面不那么一致。

What Happened to Gold & Interest Rates During the 1970’s?在1970年代期间，黄金和利率发生了什么？

We had seven periods during the 1970’s where the US Fed Fund rates rose for consecutive months before falling for multiple months. The 1970’s started while in a recession, had a recession halfway through and ended with a recession. There were two oil crises in 1973 and 1979, and it was a period of higher inflation. It was a volatile time.

我们在1970年代有七个时期，美国联邦基金利率连续几个月上涨，然后连续几个月下跌。1970年代开始时经济衰退，经济衰退中途，经济衰退结束。1973年和1979年发生了两次石油危机，这是一个通货膨胀率较高的时期。这是一个动荡的时期。

Gold after the Nixon Shock尼克松冲击之后的黄金价格

Gold bottomed about a year prior the fed funds rate did in February 1970 at $35.20/oz. After Nixon closed the gold window in August 1970, gold went to $195.5/oz. in December 1974. The fed funds rate peaked five months earlier in July 1974 at 12.92%. Many investors use the period after the Nixon closed the gold window (August 1970), as more of a true market gold price. This is because free-market forces were now allowed to decide what the US dollar and gold were worth against one another. Over the next twenty months, gold went down from the December 1974 high, to hit a low of $100/oz. in August 1976.

在1970年2月联邦基金利率达到35.20美元/盎司之前，金价触底一年左右。在尼克松于1970年8月关闭金窗后，黄金价格达到195.5美元/盎司。联邦基金利率在1974年7月提前五个月达到峰值，达到12.92％。许多投资者利用尼克松关闭黄金窗口（1970年8月）之后的时期，